NFL QB EPA rankings: From Patrick Mahomes to Dak Prescott and everyone in between

In case you didn’t know, Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. Same can be said for Josh Allen.

But can the same be said for Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers after four weeks of the 2022 NFL season? What about Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence?

I took a dive into every quarterback’s effectiveness through the first quarter of the season using the following metrics:

Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback, via TruMedia
Offensive total EPA per play, via TruMedia
Passer rating

The differences between the two EPA rates show how much of the offensive successes or struggles fall more on the quarterback or on the overall offense. And the EPA per dropback helps account for a quarterback’s ability to run and scramble, as opposed to solely using passer rating.

The players are listed by EPA per dropback, so these “rankings” aren’t subjective and can certainly change game by game. I’ll revisit these numbers following Week 8. (Note: Quarterbacks needed 30 dropbacks to qualify):

I’d say the Chiefs quarterback has quelled any fears of a dropoff with All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill now in Miami. Patrick Mahomes still has Travis Kelce and he’s found a quick rapport with Marquez Valdes-Scantling (13 catches) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (19 catches). Clyde Edwards-Helaire has also provided a spark in the rushing and passing games giving Mahomes plenty of options.

Yes, Mahomes has slowed down a touch the past two weeks after opening the season with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the first two weeks (he threw four TDs and two picks the past two weeks). Mahomes’ completion percentage is basically a mirror image of the previous two seasons with a 66.4 percent rate in 2022 compared to 66.3 percent in 2020 and 2021.

The former Alabama quarterback answered his critics in the first couple of weeks of the season. You just hope Tua Tagovailoa can recover from the horrific concussion he sustained in the Dolphins’ Week 4 loss to the Bengals.

One reason for Tagovailoa’s success, outside of potent weapons like Hill and Jaylen Waddle, is that Miami’s pass protection has improved. He’s only been pressured on 26.4 percent of his attempts, which is the sixth-best rate among qualified quarterbacks. That’s down from 32.6 percent last season. Tagovailoa also ranks fifth in catchable pass percentage, via Sports Info Solutions, at 88.4 percent.

Josh Allen has verified why he’s the betting favorite for the NFL MVP award. The Bills quarterback has 10 touchdown passes and two rushing TDs as he continues to be one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league.