The NFL finishes a great Week 12 slate with a repeat of Super Bowl 57. Both 8-1 Philadelphia and 7-2 Kansas City are favored to return to the big game in February. This week, we’re intrigued with Eagles vs. Chiefs QB props, featuring star quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.
Several terrific Monday Night Football QB props provide value for sports bettors. We’re focused on quarterbacks prop picks for passing totals, touchdowns, and more.
Hurts produced incredible numbers in their last matchup, with 374 total yards and four touchdowns. However, it’s a new season, and the Eagles haven’t quite been as explosive without offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. We’ll factor all of these changes into our picks.
This points toward a competitive, entertaining, and hopefully profitable MNF matchup.
Eagles vs. Chiefs passing props & odds: Star QBs battle on MNF
There is an impressive amount of passing props available for Hurts and Mahomes. Philadelphia has the third-best scoring offense but ranks only 10th in passing yards and touchdowns. Kansas City has also seen a dip in their offensive production, ranking 11th in scoring.
Let’s look at the best props and odds for this MNF contest.
Here is a sampling of Jalen Hurts passing props for tonight’s road game against Kansas City on our favorite sports betting sites:
Hurts’ passing totals are always interesting because he’s a threat to rack up over 300 yards in any given week. However, because the offense can be run-heavy, Hurts occasionally hovers around 200 passing yards. This has us looking at the value of his rushing props more than his passing yards.
Hurts has hit the OVER on this rushing line three times this season and was within three yards of going over in another three contests. My theory on primetime games against elite teams is that QBs will run more if they’re capable, and Hurts is more likely to scramble against Kansas City than he was against Washington, for example.
Although his average yards per carry is a career-worst 3.6 mark, Hurts will leave it all on the line in this battle.
Unsurprisingly, sportsbooks are dealing higher numbers on Patrick Mahomes’ passing props than for Hurts:
The Chiefs offense has been much closer to average than the explosive unit we’ve expected from a Mahomes-led group. Without a star receiver next to Travis Kelce, even Taylor Swift’s presence hasn’t been enough to help Mahomes elevate this group of ragtag playmakers. Seeing these passing yards props is surprising.
Mahomes has gone OVER on this line only three times all season, and those performances came against the Chargers, Broncos, and Jaguars. The Eagles defense is better than each of those units. Look for the Chiefs to chase efficiency and run the ball over getting too pass-happy.
More MNF QB touchdown prop picks to consider
ot only does it go hand-in-hand to take Mahomes’ UNDER on passing yards with UNDER on his longest completion, but this season hasn’t produced many explosive plays for the passing game. Mahomes has only two games with a 50-yard completion, and his long has been under this total in four contests this year.
The Eagles play fast and physically, meaning Kansas City has to get rid of the ball quickly to protect its QB. Look for Mahomes to take what’s given to him and limit turnover-worthy plays.
There’s no better QB prop on the board with better value than Hurts’ passing touchdowns total. Hurts is not a volume red zone passer, but to get positive value when Hurts is throwing a career-high 4.9% touchdown rate is terrific. He’s cleared the over in three straight games.
The Eagles are putting more on Hurts’ shoulders because their running game has slowed. They’ve broken the 100-yard mark only once in the last month of action. Kansas City has an elite defense and will clamp down on D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell.